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Pharmaceuticals S&P500

Mylan/Viatris and Teva at the 38th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference

Mylan presented on Viatris at the 38th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. Below are selected slides from the presentations of Mylan and Teva at the conference and figures comparing the existing business entities prior to the merger with Upjohn.

Teva has closed many manufacturing sites, but still have more than Viatris; ~60 and ~50 respectively.

Viatris Synergy Cost Savings

The cost synergies between Mylan and Upjohn are expected to be approximately $1B, whereas Teva has already realized annual cost savings of $3B as part of their restructuring plan.

Teva Restructuring Plan Cost Savings

Whereas Viatris will be paying a dividend from day one (25% of free cash flow), Teva does not currently pay a dividend. This cash flow is spent almost entirely on reduction of debt.

It is not impossible to imagine an expansion of multiples at Teva and Viatris, if legal headwinds disappear.

Enterprise value to EBITDA for Mylan and Teva
Closing price and EBITDA for Mylan
Closing price and EBITDA for Teva

Teva and Upjohn have lost revenue in part because of generic competition to Copaxone® and Lyrica®, respectively.

Revenue
Revenue
Gross profit
Teva gross profit
Mylan gross profit

Teva is the only company that have lowered their SG&A significantly as part of their $3B restructuring plan as a response to the falling generic drug prices in the US.

SG&A
SG&A as a percentage of revenue

The lowered SG&A translates to stabilized operating income.

Operating income

Future growth seems like a possibility for both companies.

2019-11-25 Bloomberg – Teva, Drugmakers in Talks With U.S. to End Generics Probes

2019-11-12 Mylan and Pfizer Announce Viatris as the New Company Name in the Planned Mylan-Upjohn Combination

2019-11-07 Bloomberg – Teva Profit Outlook Edges Up With Cost-Cutting Plan on Track

2019-07-29 Mylan and Upjohn, a Division of Pfizer, to Combine, Creating a New Champion for Global Health Uniquely Positioned to Fulfill the World’s Need for Medicine

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2019Q3 S&P500

Kraft Heinz increases prices but experiences negative organic growth of -1.1%

Kraft Heinz issued a press release on its third quarter results before the market opened. Organic growth was -1.6% in the US and -1.1% for the whole business.

Revenue and income by geographic and product segment

Revenue growth was impacted negatively by negative organic growth, currency headwinds and divestitures.

The natural cheese business being sold contributed approximately $560 million CAD (approximately $427 million USD at current FX rates) to Kraft Heinz’s net sales in 2017.

Press release from November 2018 announcing sale of Canadian natural cheese business to Parmalat.

The Kraft Heinz Company announced today the closing of the previously announced sale of its Canadian natural cheese business to Parmalat for a purchase price of $1.62 billion CAD (approximately $1.24 billion USD at current FX rates). The agreement includes Cracker Barrel, P’tit Québec, and aMOOza! brands in the Canadian market.

Press release from July 2nd announcing closing of the sale.

Gross margins and operating margins reached lows of 32.0% and 19.5% respectively, whereas SG&A excluding impairment losses was down from $803M to $762M.

The US experienced negative organic growth of -1.6% despite price growth of 1.5% and revenue in the US for the quarter was $4,361M.

EBITDA was down in all geographic segments, but EBITDA and EBITDA margins seem to have stabilised. Except in the Rest of the World segment, where increasing supply chain costs are causing damage to the EBITDA margin.

The product segment condiments and sauces as well as infant and nutrition both saw some of the biggest declines in the quarter.

CEO Miguel Patricio had the following comment regarding the segments.

While overall performance is improving, our numbers are still negative versus the prior year, and our performance remains uneven across categories and across geographies. This includes ongoing share and distribution losses within our natural cheese, cold cuts and coffee business in the United States, lower-than-anticipated promotional lifts in Canada, ongoing infant nutrition declines in both EMEA and China as well as increasing supply chain costs in our Rest of the World segment.

Kraft Heinz CEO Miguel Patricio on the 2019 third quarter earnings call.

Growth

Organic growth was -1.1% and -1.6% in the US despite growth in price of 1.5% in the US.

Debt and interest expenses

S&P in August affirmed the credit rating but revised the outlook from stable to negative. This followed the downgrade in June. S&P commented on adjusted leverage.

The negative outlook reflects the potential for a downgrade to speculative grade by mid-2021 if we believe Kraft Heinz cannot reduce adjusted leverage to below 4x. This could result if operating performance weakens further and we come to believe the strategic plan to be announced by the new CEO in early 2020 will be unsuccessful, including a failure to stabilize and reverse EBITDA declines, or an inability or unwillingness to reduce or eliminate the dividend or conduct meaningful deleveraging asset sales.

S&P press release from August

The adjusted leverage is still above 4x, but there are small signs of improvement following the deleveraging asset sale of the Canadian natural cheese business for approximately USD1.24B.

Interest expenses were up, which further stresses the need to deleverage.

Impairment charges and the balance sheet

Unlike the previous three quarters and the disastrous fourth quarter of 2018 there were no significant impairment charges and long term debt was reduced to $28,112M following the deleveraging asset sale in Canada.

Why is the share price up in the pre-market?

That the share price is up in the pre-market is probably a combination of valuation, the return of the CFO, the absence of impairment charges. Especially the valuation was attractive following the share price collapse.

And despite all of the bad news that landed in February it still remains a fact, that Kraft Heinz has some of the lowest costs and best margins in the industry.

And unlike the share price neither the sales nor the operating income have imploded. The business is intact despite the headwinds and the mountain of debt.

Media coverage

Reuters – Kraft Heinz investors cheer profit beat, plans to boost marketing

Bloomberg – Kraft Heinz Shares Rise as Delayed Comeback Materializes at Last

CNBC – Kraft Heinz stock jumps on earnings beat

Financial Times – Kraft Heinz still struggling with changing consumer tastes as sales dip

Previous media coverage

2019-10-23 Reuters – Kraft Heinz sees potential in baby food, will keep Plasmon

2019-09-17 CNBC – 3G Capital sells over 25 million shares of Kraft Heinz

2019-09-12 Reuters – Where’s the fake beef? Not at Kraft Heinz, investors worry

2019-08-26 Reuters – Kraft Heinz brings back former CFO after accounting missteps

2019-08-23 Bloomberg – Kraft Heinz Would Be Third-Largest Junk Issuer If Ratings Cut
2019-08-08 CNBC – Nightly Business Report
2019-06-25 CNBC – Warren Buffett denies tension with Kraft Heinz partner
2019-05-06 CNBC – Warren Buffett on Kraft Heinz restating earnings
2019-04-22 CNBC – Kraft Heinz names Miguel Patricio as new CEO
2019-02-25 CNBC – Warren Buffett on what he plans to do with his Kraft Heinz shares and 3G Capital
2019-02-22 CNBC – Morningstar’s Erin Lash dissects Kraft Heinz’s earnings miss
2019-02-22 CNBC – What went wrong with Kraft Heinz?
2018-05-07 CNBC – Warren Buffett: Changing Consumer Habits Hit Coke And Kraft Heinz
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2019Q3 S&P500

Amazon operating income drops and AWS margins contract

Amazon issued a press release on their third quarter results after the market closed.

Revenue increased by 24% to $70B, but operating income was down and margins for AWS and North America contracted.

In terms of cloud Microsoft Azure grew 59% YoY in the previous quarter. Microsoft is definitely catching up, and there might be a kink in the armour of Amazon.

Revenue from cloud (USDm)

Media coverage

Reuters – Amazon’s gloomy holiday forecast misses estimates, shares fall 7%

Bloomberg – Amazon’s One Sure Thing Starts to Look Shaky

Forbes – Why Amazon’s Costly One-Day Shipping Bet May Pay Big Dividends

New York Times – Amazon’s Profit Falls Sharply as Company Buys Growth

CNBC – Amazon clobbered after a miss on the bottom line and soft guidance

CNBC – Amazon’s cloud business reports 35% growth in the third quarter, trailing estimates

14Oct Morningstar – How Do You Value Amazon Heading Into 2020?

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2019Q3 S&P500 Technology

Microsoft Cloud Strength Drives First Quarter Results

Microsoft issued a press release on its 2020 first quarter results after the markets closed with the following bullet points.

  • Revenue was $33.1 billion and increased 14%
  • Operating income was $12.7 billion and increased 27%
  • Net income was $10.7 billion and increased 21%
  • Diluted earnings per share was $1.38 and increased 21%

The figures below summarise the sales, profits and margins by each business segment.

Valuation

Despite increasing sales and expanding margins Microsoft continues to be extravagantly priced. Better choices in the space might be IBM, Oracle and Cisco.

Media coverage

Reuters – Microsoft forecasts cloud sales above expectations

Reuters – Microsoft’s cloud business slows, casts shadow over results

Bloomberg – Microsoft Rallies as Results Beat ‘Virtually Every Metric’

Bloomberg – Microsoft Sales, Profit Top Estimates on Cloud; Azure Slows

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2019Q3 FMCG S&P500

P&G raises 2020 guidance amidst shining beauty and trimmed grooming

Procter & Gamble [$PG] issued a press release on its first quarter results prior to the market opening. The company raised its full year guidance. The share price jumped by 2.6% from $119.08 to a 52 week high of $122.18.

Financials

All segments except grooming displayed positive organic sales growth. The main contributors to top and bottom line growth is the beauty segment along with the fabric & home care segment.

Valuation

P&G has in 12 months gone up by more than 50% through expansion of multiples. As a consequence it is anything but cheap at current levels irrespective of having one of the best operating margins and currently displaying one of the best growth rates in the industry.

Media coverage

Reuters – P&G raises full-year forecast after beauty, healthcare brands drive profit beat

Bloomberg – P&G Gains After Posting Strong Sales Growth, Raising Outlook

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2019Q3 S&P500

Netflix beats on profit but misses on number of new subscribers

Netflix issued a press release on its quarterly results after the closing bell.

In Q3, we grew to $5.2 billion in revenue, up 31% over the prior year, and operating income doubled to$1.0 billion. Paid net adds totaled 6.8m compared to our 7.0m forecast and prior year Q3 of 6.1m. As we’ve improved the variety, diversity and quality of our content slate, member engagement has grown, revenue has increased, and we’re able to further fund our content investment.

Financials

The number of memberships keeps increasing.

But the net addition of paid memberships is leveling off and so are the number of free trials.

Revenue has grown faster than the number of memberships, because the revenue per membership continues to go up for especially domestic streaming.

Profits are further boosted by the fact, that marketing expenses have mostly stayed flat. This has sent profit margins to all time highs.

Valuation

The share price of Netflix has had an incredible 10 year stint. As has the revenue and profits. But the share price might possibly have gotten ahead of itself. The multiples are not low and the stock still appears grossly overpriced in absolute and relative terms.

Media coverage

Reuters – Netflix shares jump as subscribers grow ahead of Disney, Apple attack

Bloomberg – Netflix Restores Faith Just Ahead of Offensive by Disney, Apple

Bloomberg – Netflix Approaches Critical Test of Its Viability

New York Times – ‘Stranger Things’ Helps Netflix Increase Subscribers

CNBC – Netflix to competition: Welcome! Your success will be our success

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2019Q3 Healthcare Pharmaceuticals S&P500

J&J tops estimates

Johnson & Johnson [$JNJ] issued a press release before the market opened on its third quarter results with the following headlines:

  • Sales of $20.7 billion reflecting growth of 1.9%, operational growth of 3.2%* and adjusted operational growth of 5.2%*
  • EPS of $1.81 increased 25.7%; adjusted EPS of $2.12 increased 3.4%*
  • Company increasing Full Year Sales and EPS guidance due to strong performance

CEO Alex Gorsky issued the following statement:

“Our third-quarter results represent strong performance, driven by competitive underlying growth in Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices, as well as continued optimization in our Consumer business. As we look ahead, we remain confident in the strength of our broad-based business model, which is fueled by our disciplined portfolio management, focus on transformational innovation and dedicated employees around the world who position us for success today and well into the future.”

Financials

The figures below summarise revenue, expenses, profits, margins and each segment. The revenue growth is driven by contact lenses (7.6%), interventional solutions (14.3%), beauty (8.1%) and the pharmaceutical segment and within it immunology (Stelara®, Tremfya®), neuroscience (Invega sustenna®) and oncology (Darzalex®, Imbruvica®).

Valuation and outlook

The share price of J&J has gone up in recent years, but the top line and bottom line have not quite followed suit. The company does not at all seem undervalued at current price levels despite the guidance being raised. Many lawsuits are looming and keeping the share price at check.

Media coverage

Nightly Business Report

2019Oct15 Reuters – Prescription drugs boost drives J&J forecasts higher, shares rise

2019Oct15 Bloomberg – Johnson & Johnson to `Grow Above Market’ in 2020, CFO Says

2019Oct15 Reuters – Missouri appeals court overturns $110 million Johnson & Johnson talc verdict

2019Oct15 Bloomberg – J&J Persuades Court to Throw Out $110 Million Talc Verdict

2019Oct15 Bloomberg – J&J Makes $4 Billion Opioid Offer as Distributors Seek Deal

2019Oct15 Bloomberg – J&J Says No Legal Reserves Needed Amid Wave of Lawsuits

2019Oct14 Bloomberg – J&J Faces 100,000 More Damage Claims After Taking $8 Billion Hit

2019Oct09 Reuters – Johnson & Johnson hit as jury awards “excessive” $8 bln in damages

2019Oct08 Reuters – Jury says J&J must pay $8 billion in case over male breast growth linked to Risperdal

2019Oct08 Bloomberg – J&J Unit Ordered to Pay $8 Billion Over Anti-Psychotic Drug

2019Oct07 Reuters – Oklahoma appeals size of $572 million award in J&J opioid case

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2019Q3 Healthcare S&P500

UnitedHealth beats estimates and raises outlook

United Healthcare [$UNH] issued a press release on its quarterly results before the market opened with the following headlines:

  • Total Revenues of $60.4 Billion Grew by 7% or $3.8 Billion Year-over-Year
  • Operating Earnings Grew 9% to $5.0 Billion, Including Double-Digit Growth Rates in Each Optum Business
  • Net Earnings Per Share were $3.67, Adjusted Net Earnings Per Share were $3.88, Bringing Year-To-Date Growth to 17%
  • Cash Flows from Operations were $3.2 Billion in the Quarter, Bringing Year-To-Date Cash Flows from Operations to $12.3 Billion or 1.2x Net Income

The share price went from $220.59 to a closing price of $238.59 (+8.2%) following the earnings release and comments by the CEO David Wichmann and the CFO John Rex during the earnings call.

“Based on this year’s year-to-date performance, we have increased our outlook for full year 2019 adjusted earnings to a range of $14.90 to $15.00 per share.”

“Our strong year-to-date results lead us to raise our full year 2019 outlook for adjusted earnings to a range of $14.90 to $15.00 per share, at the mid-point an increase of $0.40 per share from the initial outlook we provided late last year.”

Financials

The figures below summarise the increasing revenue and operating income in each of the operating segments.

Sector comparison

UnitedHealth has the best margins in the industry, but the multiples are also higher as a consequence. The recent pullback provided an entry option at somewhat lower multiples, but the share price growth has mostly been fuelled by expansion of multiples in recent years.

Media coverage

Reuters – UnitedHealth sees 2020 profit above Street target; shares climb 8%

Bloomberg – Health Insurers Gain Most Since 2013 as Medical Cost Fears Ease