European earnings calendar

The earnings season in the US has kicked off with earnings from the banks JP Morgan ($JPM) and Wells Fargo ($WFC). Below are the earnings date for selected European and Nordic publicly listed companies. The companies are mostly constituents of the indices EURO STOXX 50®, STOXX® Europe 50 and OMX Nordic 40.

Chr. Hansen Holding A/SCHR.CO2020-01-15Specialty Chemicals
Sandvik ABSAND.ST2020-01-21Specialty Industrial Machinery
ASML Holding N.V.ASML.AS2020-01-22Semiconductor
Tryg A/STRYG.CO2020-01-22Insurance—Diversified
KONE OyjKNEBV.HE2020-01-28Specialty Industrial Machinery
LVMHMC.PA2020-01-28Luxury Goods
Koninklijke Philips N.V.PHIA.AS2020-01-28Diagnostics & Research
SAP SESAP.DE2020-01-28Software—Application
Novartis AGNOVN.SW2020-01-29Drug Manufacturers
Banco Santander, S.A.SAN.MC2020-01-29Banks—Diversified
Telia Company AB (publ)TELIA.ST2020-01-29Telecom Services
Diageo plcDGE.L2020-01-30Beverages—Wineries & Distilleries
Orsted A/SORSTED.CO2020-01-30Utilities—Renewable
The Unilever GroupULVR.L2020-01-30Household & Personal Products
The Unilever GroupUNA.AS2020-01-30Household & Personal Products
UPM-Kymmene OyjUPM.HE2020-01-30Paper & Paper Products
BBVA, S.A.BBVA.MC2020-01-31Banks—Diversified
Demant A/SDEMANT.CO2020-02-04Medical Instruments & Supplies
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.ISP.MI2020-02-04Banks—Regional
Pandora A/SPNDORA.CO2020-02-04Luxury Goods
ABB LtdABBN.SW2020-02-05Specialty Industrial Machinery
BNP Paribas SABNP.PA2020-02-05Banks—Regional
Danske Bank A/SDANSKE.CO2020-02-05Banks—Regional
VINCI SADG.PA2020-02-05Engineering & Construction
GN Store Nord A/SGN.CO2020-02-05Medical Devices
GlaxoSmithKline plcGSK.L2020-02-05Drug Manufacturers
Siemens AGSIE.DE2020-02-05Specialty Industrial Machinery
SimCorp A/SSIM.CO2020-02-05Software—Application
Vestas Wind Systems A/SVWS.CO2020-02-05Specialty Industrial Machinery
Vodafone Group PlcVOD.L2020-02-05Telecom Services
Enel SpAENEL.MI2020-02-06Utilities—Diversified
Fortum OyjFORTUM.HE2020-02-06Utilities—Renewable
TOTAL S.A.FP.PA2020-02-06Oil & Gas Integrated
Societe Generale SAGLE.PA2020-02-06Banks—Regional
ING Groep N.V.INGA.AS2020-02-06Banks—Diversified
H. Lundbeck A/SLUN.CO2020-02-06Drug Manufacturers
Nokia CorporationNOKIA.HE2020-02-06Communication Equipment
L'Oreal S.A.OR.PA2020-02-06Household & Personal Products
Sampo OyjSAMPO.HE2020-02-06Insurance—Diversified
SanofiSAN.PA2020-02-06Drug Manufacturers
DSV Panalpina A/SDSV.CO2020-02-07Integrated Freight & Logistics
Neste OyjNESTE.HE2020-02-07Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Eni S.p.A.ENI.MI2020-02-10Oil & Gas Integrated
L'Air Liquide S.A.AI.PA2020-02-11Chemicals
Amadeus IT Group, S.A.AMS.MC2020-02-11Information Technology Services
Daimler AGDAI.DE2020-02-11Auto Manufacturers
FLSmidth & Co. A/SFLS.CO2020-02-11Specialty Industrial Machinery
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V.AD.AS2020-02-12Grocery Stores
Swedish Match AB (publ)SWMA.ST2020-02-12Tobacco
Airbus SEAIR.PA2020-02-13Aerospace & Defense
Boliden AB (publ)BOL.ST2020-02-13Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Nestle S.A.NESN.SW2020-02-13Packaged Foods
Orange S.A.ORA.PA2020-02-13Telecom Services
RELX PLCREL.L2020-02-13Publishing
Vivendi SAVIV.PA2020-02-13Broadcasting
Zurich Insurance Group AGZURN.SW2020-02-13Insurance—Diversified
AstraZeneca PLCAZN.L2020-02-14Drug Manufacturers
HSBC Holdings plcHSBA.L2020-02-17Banks—Diversified
Deutsche Telekom AGDTE.DE2020-02-19Telecom Services
Genmab A/SGMAB.CO2020-02-19Biotechnology
AXA SACS.PA2020-02-20Insurance—Diversified
Fresenius SE & Co. KGaAFRE.DE2020-02-20Medical Care Facilities
Schneider Electric S.E.SU.PA2020-02-20Specialty Industrial Machinery
Telefonica, S.A.TEF.MC2020-02-20Telecom Services
Lloyds Banking Group plcLLOY.L2020-02-20Banks—Regional
Allianz SEALV.DE2020-02-21Insurance—Diversified
Jyske Bank A/SJYSK.CO2020-02-25Banks—Regional
Danone S.A.BN.PA2020-02-26Packaged Foods
ENGIE SAENGI.PA2020-02-26Utilities—Diversified
Iberdrola, S.A.IBE.MC2020-02-26Utilities—Diversified
ISS A/SISS.CO2020-02-26Specialty Business Services
Rio Tinto GroupRIO.L2020-02-26Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NVABI.BR2020-02-27Beverages—Brewers
British American Tobacco p.l.c.BATS.L2020-02-27Tobacco
Bayer AGBAYN.DE2020-02-27Drug Manufacturers
Safran SASAF.PA2020-02-27Aerospace & Defense
Saint-Gobain S.A.SGO.PA2020-02-27Building Products & Equipment
BASF SEBAS.DE2020-02-28Chemicals
Munchener Ruckversicherung AGMUV2.DE2020-02-28Insurance—Reinsurance
EssilorLuxottica SAEL.PA2020-03-06Medical Instruments & Supplies
Deutsche Post AGDPW.DE2020-03-10Integrated Freight & Logistics
Royal Unibrew A/SRBREW.CO2020-03-10Beverages—Brewers
adidas AGADS.DE2020-03-11Footwear & Accessories
Prudential plcPRU.L2020-03-11Insurance—Life
Volkswagen AGVOW3.DE2020-03-17Auto Manufacturers
Inditex, S.A.ITX.MC2020-03-18Apparel Retail
E.ON SEEOAN.DE2020-03-25Utilities—Diversified
2019Q3 Diabetes Healthcare Pharmaceuticals

Diabetes and the third quarter of 2019

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have both reported their Q3 results. Below are some of the headlines related to their diabetes business.

  • Novo Nordisk
    • OG2023SC, an oral GLP-1 analogue, has been discontinued based on encouraging results for an enhanced oral semaglutide formulation.
    • US FDA decision on cardiovascular indication for Rybelsus® is expected in the first quarter of 2020.
  • Eli Lilly
    • The European Commission approved an expansion of the Trulicity® label to include results from the REWIND cardiovascular outcomes trial

The figures below summarise sales and sales growth by product and geography for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

The diabetes market as a whole

Despite the headwinds faced by insulins such as Lantus® and DPP4 drugs such as Januvia® the overall sales of antidiabetic drugs is not declining thanks to the superior GLP1 drugs.

Sales of anti-diabetic and anti-obesity drugs within and outside the US.

If the current growth rates for GLP1 and insulin continues, then GLP1 could overtake insulin in the US at the end of the 2nd quarter of 2020. It depends on the growth of Ozempic® and Rybelsus® and the pace at which Lantus®, Levemir®, Novorapid®, Humalog® and others continue to decline as they are cannibalised by Basaglar® and Admelog®.

Sales of anti-diabetic and anti-obesity drugs by drug class.

The advantage of GLP1 drugs over insulin is that there is no hypoglycaemic risk and an added benefit is weight loss. The table below compares the different types of anti-diabetic drugs and explains the reversed fortunes of insulin and GLP1 receptor agonists.

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have been leading the GLP1 revolution and have been rewarded heavily, whereas the diabetes business of Sanofi has suffered and continues to suffer within and outside the US.

Sales of anti-diabetic and anti-obesity drugs by company.

The GLP1 class of drugs have picked up steam in Europe and elsewhere outside the US, but there is still an unmet potential.

GLP1 sales by company.

The GLP1 drug Victoza® is being cannibalised by Ozempic®, which is experiencing explosive growth of more than 400% in the US and in the world, which possibly makes it the fastest growing drug in the world in the third quarter.

GLP1 sales by drug.

It is the insulin Lantus® being cannibalised by Basaglar®, which is a drag on Sanofi. Tresiba® is the only insulin other than Basaglar® experiencing growth in the US.

Insulin sales by drug.

Novo Nordisk might be experiencing increased sales for Tresiba® in the US and their insulin drugs in China, but Levemir® and all of their other insulin drugs are decling in the US, which is not offset by the small sales growth of Tresiba® in the US.

Insulin sales by company.

Eli Lilly (and their partner Boehringer-Ingelheim) have seen their diabetes sales further strengthened compared to Novo Nordisk by the presence of the SGLT2 drug Jardiance® in their portfolio, which is competing with Farxiga® from AstraZeneca and Invokana® from J&J. Cardiovascular benefits have been shown for Jardiance® in the EMPA-REG OUTCOME clinical trial and the FDA have in June also granted fast track designation for the treatment of chronic heart failure.

SGLT2 sales by company.
SGLT2 sales by drug.

DPP4 drugs are declining in the US, whereas they are experiencing growth outside the US.

DPP4 sales by company.

The DPP4 decline in the US is led by Januvia® and Janumet® from Merck, but these two drugs are actually growing slightly outside the US for the time being.

DPP4 sales by drug.

Ozempic® and Jardiance® and the ICER report

The ICER report have found that oral GLP-1 Semaglutide, at estimated net price, is less cost-effective than SGLT-2 competitor Empaglifozin as add-on therapy for type 2 diabetes. CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen and CSO Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen of Novo Nordisk had the following comments to the ICER report.

So the known legislation related to the donut hole, which we have been public about earlier. The impact is 1% on group sales in 2020. And then, of course, it’s also important to note that this will have an impact in terms of patient affordability, so the American government, they are actually pushing more cost to patients with this change.

Novo Nordisk CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen on the ICER report during the Q3 earnings call.

First of all, Jo, let’s just remind each other of the differences between a classic health economic outcome research analysis taking into account all the big landmark trial data that have emerged over time that typically predict what the societal cost of the burden of diabetic-linked complications will be over decades, 2 decades, 3 decades and so on. And those analysis are the ones that we have done with the impact — metabolic impact of Rybelsus showing that over decades, this is clearly cost effective for society to use the product.

This element is not really integrated in the ICER research, which just looks at the mere data as they are and the metabolic outcomes here and now. But as I understand the report, having not had really time to study it today, it is still the perception that I have that when it comes to sitagliptin and liraglutide, there seems to be cost effectiveness of Rybelsus®. And then it’s only when you look at the empagliflozin that they claim that not to be the case. But all that is said then, by the way, the discussions that our American team have ongoing with the PBMs, they’re ongoing, and we’ll keep you updated as they come to conclusion over time.

Novo Nordisk CSO Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen on the ICER report during the Q3 earnings call.

Pipeline and R&D updates

In addition to the discontinuation by Novo Nordisk of the GLP1 candidate OG2023SC due to improved formulation of oral semaglutide there were other updates to the pipelines.

Novo Nordisk CSO, Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen, had the following comments on the discontinuation of OG2023SC, semaglutide and other injectable incretins.

2023, that relates to the fact that we have seen really nice data. You do recall, Peter, that we had 2 ongoing trials in parallel. One was the enhanced formulations of oral semaglutide, that is completed; and the other one was the new analog 2023. And with the benefits that we’ve seen vis-à-vis the formulation’s impact on bioavailability, we see no need to further develop 2023. So we actually view this as a sign of success of the
strong collaboration between the R&D colleagues and the product supply colleagues who are able to constantly upgrade, you can say, the performance of oral semaglutide.

So on the injectable portfolio of incretin-like projects, if we
start with the most advanced first, that is obviously the combination between semaglutide and the amylin 833 compound. And those data out, as you correctly state, in the first half of next year. And based on what I know from preclinical experiments and the monotherapy over 7 weeks with amylin compound, they should be hopefully showing really
good weight loss data since this is in obese people is taking place. So we’ll get back to that next year.
Then we have two agonists, a triple and a dual agonist ongoing in multiple dosing in Phase Ib, and that is, of course, the GIP/GLP-1/glucagon triple agonist and it’s the GIP/GLP co-agonist. And those data are actually available later this year.
And then finally, we’re gearing up for using sema, which we perceive to be both the anchor drug in several diseases but also the anchor drug partner in new to-be combination products. And therefore, we are also combining that expectedly with the once-weekly human GIP to optimize the ratio between these 2 incretins in the event that GIP actually turns out to play a role in human biology. That’s still a bit uncertain at this point.

Novo Nordisk CSO, Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen, on the Novo Nordisk Q3 earnings call.

Eli Lilly president of Lilly Research Laboratories, Dan Skovronsky, had the following comments on their injectable tri-agonist and oral incretins.

Finally, I’d like to highlight two exciting diabetes programs. With our next generation injectable incretin GIP, GLP, glucagon, tri-agonist or GGG we’re testing the hypothesis that adding glucagon to GIP/GLP will have more metabolic activity and stimulate additional weight loss.

The initial Phase 1 study, to study the safety of a single injection in healthy participants and we’re now studying multiple doses including dose titration. We expect this program to enter Phase II by late 2020 or early 2021; just like the hurdle for tirzepatide to enter Phase III was a meaningful improvement over Trulicity, the bar here will be a step change over tirzepatide itself.

Additionally, our commitment to oral incretins has continued to increase as we advanced programs through development we seek to improve upon administration or efficacy. Our first oral incretin program which we licensed from Chugai last year is a small molecule non-peptide agonist of GLP-1 that entered Phase 1 earlier this year.

Our initial focus will be on pharmacokinetics with the expectation that it should be meaningfully better than a peptide as well as the pharmacodynamic response, which we should see even in Phase 1, this molecule could enter Phase 2 in early 2021; in addition to this approach, we’re also pursuing dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist peptides for oral delivery. These programs, which are designed to give tirzepatide like efficacy with a once-a-day oral peptide administration are also progressing preclinically and should enter Phase 1 next year. We look forward to tracking the progress of these assets over the coming years and we’ll share additional pipeline updates on our next earnings call.

President of Lilly Research Laboratories, Dan Skovronsky, on the Eli Lilly Q3 earnings call.
Eli Lilly pipeline.

Press releases

Novo Nordisk – Novo Nordisk’s operating profit increased by 11% in Danish kroner and by 5% at constant exchange rates (CER) in the first nine months of 2019

Eli Lilly – Lilly Reports Strong Third-Quarter 2019 Financial Results, Raises 2019 EPS Guidance

Media coverage

Nightly Business Report – October 23, 2019
Eli Lilly CEO on 3Q Results, Drug-Pricing Reforms

ReutersNovo Nordisk nudges up 2019 sales outlook as new drugs excel

BloombergNovo CEO Jorgensen on Biopharma, Insulin Prices, Innovation

Reuters – Sales of Eli Lilly diabetes drug Trulicity fall short, shares drop

2019Q3 Breweries Europe

AB InBev increases prices in South Korea and Brazil and sees volume decline

AB InBev issued a press release on their quarterly results before the market opened.

The two most important headlines of the quarter were probably the listing of Budweiser APAC on the HKEx and implementation of price increases in South Korea and Brazil that drove volume declines.

Quarterly (YoY) organic volume growth (%).
CNBC Television – 30sep2019 – Budweiser APAC CEO speaks about the promise of the Asia market

Whereas revenue and revenue per hectolitre were up, volume was down and EBITDA margins contracted.

TTM revenue per segment
TTM volume per segment
TTM revenue per hectolitre

The proceeds from the listing of Budweiser APAC was used to reduce debt and AB InBev is on track to reduce the debt to 4 times normalized EBITDA before the end of the year; one year earlier than the prior guidance. Deleveraging to approximately 2 times EBITDA still remains the commitment.

Comparison of breweries

AB InBev continues to have the strongest operating margins in the industry because of their strong brands and their economies of scale. For example cost synergies of USD3.2B have been realised three years after the acquisition of SABMiller.

Interbrands 2019 report

Interbrands released their report on the 100 top ranked brands in the world on the 17th of October. AB InBev is featured on the list with two of their brands; Budweiser (#32) and the rapidly growing Corona (#79).

Media coverage

Reuters – AB InBev loses $13 billion in value as beer drinking slows in Brazil and South Korea

Bloomberg – Beer Giant AB InBev Loses $20 Billion in Market Value

CNN – Budweiser brewer hit by slumping sales in China

Financial Times – AB InBev scales back annual profit target after quarterly miss 

Bloomberg – The King of Beers Is in a Bind

WSJ – Budweiser Brewer Issues Profit Warning, Sending Shares Sharply Lower

2019-10-24 Bloomberg – Budweiser APAC Posts Sharp Profit Drop

2019-10-06 CNBC – Budweiser wants to take on China, the world’s largest beer market where local brews rule

2019-10-06 CNBC – Budweiser wants to take on China, the world’s largest beer market where local brews rule

European earnings calendar

Three important indexes in Europe are the STOXX Europe 50 for Europe and the EURO STOXX 50 for the Eurozone and the S&P 350 Europe.

The EURO STOXX 50 Index, Europe’s leading blue-chip index for the Eurozone, provides a blue-chip representation of supersector leaders in the region.

The STOXX Europe 50 Index, Europe’s leading Blue-chip index, provides a representation of supersector leaders in Europe.

Below are the earnings dates for the components of the STOXX indices in a sortable table.

ASML Holding N.V.ASML.AS2019-10-16SemiconductorVeldhoven22125
Nestle S.A.NESN.SW2019-10-17Packaged FoodsVevey308000
SAP SESAP.DE2019-10-21SoftwareWalldorf98332
UBS Group AGUBSG.SW2019-10-22BanksZurich66922
Novartis AGNOVN.SW2019-10-22Drug ManufacturersBasel108000
ABB LtdABBN.SW2019-10-23Diversified IndustrialsZurich147000
Iberdrola, S.A.IBE.MC2019-10-23UtilitiesBilbao34210
BASF SEBAS.DE2019-10-24ChemicalsLudwigshafen118705
Daimler AGDAI.DE2019-10-24Auto ManufacturersStuttgart304065
Eni S.p.A.ENI.MI2019-10-24Oil & Gas IntegratedRome32011
AstraZeneca PLCAZN.L2019-10-24Drug ManufacturersCambridge64400
Nokia CorporationNOKIA.HE2019-10-24Communication EquipmentEspoo103083
AB InBev SA/NVABI.BR2019-10-25BeveragesLeuven175000
Philips N.V.PHIA.AS2019-10-28Diagnostics & ResearchAmsterdam77748
Orange S.A.ORA.PA2019-10-29TelecomParis135943
BP p.l.c.BP.L2019-10-29Oil & Gas IntegratedLondon69600
Fresenius SE & Co. KGaAFRE.DE2019-10-29Medical CareBad Homburg288459
TOTAL S.A.FP.PA2019-10-30Oil & Gas IntegratedParis104460
Banco Santander, S.A.SAN.MC2019-10-30BanksMadrid201804
Bayer AktiengesellschaftBAYN.DE2019-10-30Drug ManufacturersLeverkusen115498
GlaxoSmithKline plcGSK.L2019-10-30Drug ManufacturersBrentford95490
Airbus SEAIR.PA2019-10-30Aerospace & DefenseLeiden136343
Telefonica, S.A.TEF.MC2019-10-31TelecomMadrid118384
BBVA, S.A.BBVA.MC2019-10-31BanksBilbao126017
ING Groep N.V.INGA.AS2019-10-31BanksAmsterdam53000
BNP Paribas SABNP.PA2019-10-31BanksParis202000
SanofiSAN.PA2019-10-31Drug ManufacturersParis104226
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.ISP.MI2019-11-05BanksTurin90888
adidas AGADS.DE2019-11-06Footwear & AccessoriesHerzogenaurach56753
Ahold Delhaize N.V.AD.AS2019-11-06Grocery StoresZaandam372000
Societe Generale SAGLE.PA2019-11-06BanksParis149000
Deutsche Telekom AGDTE.DE2019-11-07TelecomBonn212762
Zurich Insurance Group AGZURN.SW2019-11-07InsuranceZurich54000
Munich ReMUV2.DE2019-11-07InsuranceMunich39869
Siemens AktiengesellschaftSIE.DE2019-11-07Diversified IndustrialsMunich384000
Amadeus IT Group, S.A.AMS.MC2019-11-07Information TechnologyMadrid17109
Enel SpAENEL.MI2019-11-07UtilitiesRome68842
Allianz SEALV.DE2019-11-08InsuranceMunich142460
Vodafone Group PlcVOD.L2019-11-12TelecomNewbury94442
Deutsche Post AGDPW.DE2019-11-12Shipping & LogisticsBonn540779
E.ON SEEOAN.DE2019-11-13UtilitiesEssen44152
National Grid plcNG.L2019-11-14UtilitiesLondon22576
Industria de Diseno Textil, S.A.ITX.MC2019-12-11Apparel StoresA Coruna167897

Reuters – More pain for Europe Inc as earnings drought seen spilling over into 2020

Reuters – Europe third-quarter earnings outlook deteriorates as trade war, Brexit bite